| May 2007 |
| Is the rollout of Microsoft's new OS actually creating new IT jobs? |
| By Don Willmott |
Just as Microsoft's Vista operating system was hitting the marketplace in December 2006,
research firm IDC published a fascinating report (commissioned by Microsoft, it should be noted) that predicted a tidal wave of economic growth and job creation thanks to its arrival. The report stirred memories of the launch of Windows 95, as it suggested Vista would make a similar impact on the IT world of 2007 and beyond. But how's that stack up to reality? Can Vista create jobs?
Here's some of what IDC predicted:
- Within its first year of shipment, more than 35 million computers in the U.S. are expected to be running Vista.
- 18 percent of IT workers (nearly two million people) will be involved in Vista-related employment in its first year of shipment.
- In 2007, as many as 200,000 IT companies in the U.S. that produce, sell, or distribute products or services running on Vista will employ over 660,000 people. Another 1.15 million workers will be employed at firms using Vista.
- While many of these jobs will shift from Windows XP-related positions, over 60 percent of the growth in Windows-related employment, or 157,000 new jobs, will be driven by Vista.
But wait a minute. In February, The ChangeWave Alliance, a research network of 10,000 business and technology professionals, surveyed 1,780 corporate IT buyers about their Vista upgrade plans. The results can hardly be music to Microsoft's ears. Only four percent had a formal plan in place, while 30 percent were either thinking about or working on one. A humbling 58 percent had no plans to upgrade. Only 14 percent said Vista's arrival was speeding up their normal upgrade cycles, while 68 percent said it would have no impact on their upgrade cycles for at least six months. Clearly the majority of respondents were thinking "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."
A Reality Check
To get a reality check, Dice queried experts in every corner of the country, asking 20 local managers from leading IT recruiter Sapphire Technologies what they were seeing in terms of Vista-related job creation. The overall impression: While it's hard to judge whether any one new job listing can be directly linked to Vista, many large organizations are extremely cautious when it comes to operating systems, taking a wait-and-see approach before beginning sweeping upgrades.
In Boston, for example, Sapphire Branch Manager Terrence O'Leary said, "We haven't seen evidence of the Vista effect. My guess is that organizations that were planning an XP upgrade will now go straight to Vista, but those that just migrated to XP will most likely wait for a more compelling reason to upgrade rather than just the fact a new OS has arrived."
In Detroit, Branch Manager Vic Serraiocco is waiting and watching. "Many of our large customers will be migrating to Vista. We expect to see the implementations begin in the third and fourth quarter of this year, but to date we don't have any consultants engaged in this space," he said. His colleague in Sacramento, Erik Fleischman, agreed, noting "some rumblings of this happening later in the year."
In Orange County, Calif., rep Dan Cordero pointed out that "Most of our larger clients have migrations and rollovers built into their strategic plans, so staffing for these types of activities is fairly well planned in advance." In Washington, D.C., Ed Estelle was also skeptical. "We have seen no evidence thus far. In fact, it appears that Vista is, at least initially, going to have a much bigger impact on the residential market. Most of our clients have already built and put in place the enhancements that Vista provides, and only where we see bulk installations of brand new computers do we even run across new jobs that can be attributed to Vista's arrival."
In fact, a search of Dice's job listings at the end of April turned up fewer than ten jobs anywhere in the U.S. that were directly related to Vista rollouts. However, more than 200 mentioned familiarity with Vista as an employment prerequisite.
Coders Get Ready
It's clear that if Vista is going to create new technology jobs, they won't be among the army of computer support specialists who keep millions of corporate computers running each day. Where Vista is being rolled out, the technicians already in place will be covering that task and, so far, it doesn't sound like a very big job.
Given all the griping from those who bought Vista pre-installed, only to discover it doesn't work with this piece of software or that piece of hardware, it's more likely that new jobs will involve coding drivers, patches and upgrades to make the new OS work better with legacy products. Although Microsoft worked for years to insure compatibility, over the past several months the biggest complaint about Vista has been its inability to get along with older products with which it was supposed to be backward-compatible.
Even if Vista is off to a slow start, it certainly makes sense for those who work in computer support to get familiar with its features that have won praise, most notably its built-in security technology. No matter what angry bloggers may wish for, Vista isn't going anywhere. Even if Microsoft doesn't get it perfect until the third version (something of a Microsoft tradition when you think about it), it's the OS that will eventually run on most corporate and desktop PCs.
Don Willmott is a New York City-based journalist who focuses on Internet and technology trends.
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